Initially I have gone with the following, lets hope they pay off :)

1. Short sold National having a parliamentary majority
2. Short sold Winston Peters returning as an MP.
3. Short sold the Maori Party vote. (Expecting it to be less than 4%)
4. Short sold the chance of the Maori Party making a supply & confidence agreement with National.
5. Bought shares in National governing with no agreement with the Maori Party.

I will also buy some shares in John Key being the next PM should the price drop a bit lower.